Wednesday, 16 August 2017

Accumulation Betting: Week 2

WEEK 2 - AFL Multi

Welcome to week 2, were we shall continue to double down our luck with our current accumulation funds!
Last week we took a big punt on 3 games and this week will no different. Why? Because I found it truly difficult to split the difference in odds between the games. Pound for pound, all the selections below are just as likely as the next and with them all carrying an average of $1.30+, it seemed like a good week to double down! Let's get to it!

GWS over West Coast.
Pretty simple choice this one really. I know the Eagles are trying to maintain a top 8 position, but the GWS can't afford to lose a chance at a home final this late in the year. There is also the potential return of Jeremy Cameron, who is a massive win catalyst for the Giants. With the retirement of Priddis and Mitchell, West Coast will be setting their sights on the future years and rebuilding somewhat...
and of course, West Coast is fucking terrible on the road! Making $1.25 a nice booster for any multi this week.

Hawthorn over Carlton

I'm surprised that Hawthorn are actually going into this at just $1.33, I would of expected something more along the lines of $1.22, but I'm not complaining. Carlton have 8 out for the season including names such as; Rowe, Silgvagne, Cripps, Kerr and Curnow. Having these old heads our for the season means that the "children" have to fill in the blanks... and those kids are spent from this season! Hawthorn, admittedly, have their own list of injuries but i think the polish and experience on the field will prove too much for the young Blues.

Essendon over Gold Coast:
Now, this game I was actually VERY dubious about including! I would forgive anyone who gave it a wide birth for security reasons, but with the Dons flying up to Gold Coast at just $1.38, I thought it was worth having a look at. I did a quick ladder predictor, and realistically the Bombers HAVE to win both of their last two games this season. They can't afford to lose one, let alone yield to the Gold Coast. Also, let's be honest, the GC is in shambles and will be fore a while still...
$1.38 for finals contenders? Yes, please!

All up we get combined standard odds of around $2.29 and taking advantage of Lad Brokes 'odds boost' promotion our total result amount will be $170.79!
Once this week is done, we can start earning some REAL cash!

Question for this week: Would you have considered St. Kilda over North Melbourne?

Sunday, 13 August 2017

Robbie Gray: The Quarterback!

The fantastic game we know as AFL could soon be changed forever. We seem to be reaching a tipping point when it comes to the rules of our game.
Players can no longer tackle effectively for fear of MRP scrutiny.
Players can only sledge within the realms of what executives deem "appropriate".
To top it all off, it appears that players are now being allowed to actively throw the ball to them selves long as it looks good.

I refer to a passage of play during the clash between Collingwood and Port Adelaide.
It was a hard fought, passionate match all in all and a pleasure to watch for the most part.
During the 3rd Quarter, Collingwood had some some amazing plays which allowed them back into contention for the game. It was a close match and the umpires had to be hot on the whistle.

If we flash forward to the 4th quarter we can see the event I refer to.
Have a look for yourself:

This act is absolutely absurd for a multitude of reasons but the key one being; a player cannot take possession of the ball, throw the ball and then reclaim possession.
Even the PAFC have titled the video, "Gray's juggling act".

So did we hear a whistle for incorrect disposal? No. We didn't. Port Adelaide went on to score a goal as a result of this and, in doing so, cause a massive rift in Collingwood's comeback.
A decision like this from an umpire to allow play to resume can impact the entire game and in this case, it did!

For any delusional fanatics out there who thought this was a fair play, i will simply refer you to the breakdown below:

1. Gray takes possession of the ball with his right hand. He does not slap, punch or tickle the ball, he grasps it with his palm and fingers.

2. Gray swings the ball from his left hand to his right whilst on the run. At this point nothing is wrong. It was a fair handball and fair grab.

3. As Gray twists his body he loses grip on the ball and fumbles it out of his left hand. Technically this can be viewed as losing possession, but we'll let it slide because it's very minor in respect to what other players get away with these days.
4. At this point you would expect to have the umpires attention. Gray has thrown the ball around his back with his right hand, failed to pass it to his right and it is now in mid air.
5. If anyone wants to claim that he had "possession the entire time", I'm not sure what drugs you are on but they must be good if they allow you to bridge gaps in physical space! The ball is clearly floating in mid air and Robbie Gray has 100% lost possession.
6. the icing on the cake. Gray grabs the ball, re-gains possession and sprints off with it.
No whistle. No penalty. No idea!

Our once great game is turning into something unrecognizable. The MRP are suspending players for fair tackles. Dangerfield has lost a Brownlow medal for simply playing his role in the correct manner

...and now we are allowed to throw the ball.

This is football. Not Handball.

Do you think Gray should have been pinged?
Let me know.

Friday, 11 August 2017

Accumulation Betting: Week 1

WEEK 1 - AFL Multi

Welcome to week 1 and the humble beginnings of our accumulation betting journey.
As you can probably see by this initial bet, I've actually gone ahead and pissed all over some of the rules I set down in the beginning!
Why? Because, 1. I had a good, hard think about these selections and 2. I want to start this thing off with  a decent win and look like a fucking hero!
Now... Let's get to it!

GWS over Bulldogs.
This was always going to be a win for GWS. I wasn't too sure on the margin exactly, but I knew the kids at GWS would stand up this close to finals. There was no way in hell they were going to lose the former glory that is now the Western Bulldogs.
Juicy $1.73 odds made it a no brainer.

Brisbane over Gold Coast.
Initially I was going to give this one a wide birth, because as we've seen by history, when a club loses they're coach... they win the following game.
BUT! The omission of one Gary Ablett makes this a nice little booster for the multi.
There is no right or wrong here, it could easily go wither way, bit of a cripple fight to be honest. However, if you're looking to "have a punt" then don't go past these $1.52 odds.

Hawthorn over North Melbourne:
Now, I probably should have left this 2 game multi alone right now. After all, 50% of something is better than 100% of nothing! But I kept looking and looking at this game... I watched a few fluctuations and spoke to a few Hawks fans. After last weeks lose and given there simplistic run home, I think they'll be looking to put North Melbourne to bed.
In addition, North is still no playing great football as the ladder indicates and with the return of Luke Hodge after announcing his retirement, the Hawks will be looking to fire up!
All in all, there is good reason why the odds only floating at $1.30.

All up we get combined odds of around $3.42 and taking advantage of Lad Brokes 'odds boost' promotion our total result amount should be $71.80!
Not a bad way to kick off our accumulation fund!

Question for this week: Would you have considered Collingwood Over Port Adelaide?

Saturday, 5 August 2017

Welcome to Dropping Punts

Welcome everyone to Dropping Punts!

My name is Tyrone and I love a punt.

First off, I'd like to mention that this is my first ever Blog and I'm super excited about it. I've dabbled in these kind of things before and have written a few odd articles over the years, but never actually put my experience and opinions into one place so it's very exciting!

So, what is Dropping Punts?
Well, as you may have assumed, this Blog is primarily about dropping punts. As in, placing bets.
I am in no way an avid expert on statistics, form guides or gambling. In fact, I'm sure throughout this experience you guys will probably teach me more than I teach you.
One thing I do have to my name though is a track record. Unlike most punters I come across, I've won more than I've lost over the years. Is it due to good luck? I can't say.

What I can say though, is that I have a few simple rules I stick to and they seem to work.

1. NEVER... EVER... gamble what you can't afford!

Ok, so this one sounds like cliche' and I'm sure most of you don't want to here my P.S.A about responsible gambling... but that's not what this is!
What I refer to is things such as chasing your tail. If you have a $50 for a night at the pub with the lads and you plan on spending about $30 of that on a few rounds, spend $20 on a punt.
Do not go to the ATM first. Do not go to the ATM after your bet fails. Do not go to the ATM!
The simplest way I can put it is this; You will never will when you need to.
I don't know if it's cosmic karma or the F--- You from the universe, but if you have $20 and you need $100 to pay your rent... KEEP THE $20! Because, most likely, you'll put that $20 on a football match and suddenly the entire team will get cancer or polio or god knows what! Just bet for fun!

2. Practice Accumulation betting.

When I say this to people, the most common response is "What the hell is that!?"
Well, straight off the bat I have to say, no! The accumulation betting I  speak of is not system betting, nor is it Multi betting! It is a disciplined, boring, basic form of betting that involves "low risk. low reward" tactics. Most people are tempted by the allure of the BIG MULTI BET! I mean, I am too! We all are, that's why it's called a gamble. But, if you want to make some good cash, the best practice for syndicates is as per the example below.

You have $50 to punt for the weekend, try and accumulate your winnings.
Let's assume the average odds of you bet are about $1.40, here's how you build it up.

50.00 x 1.40 = 70.00
70.00 x 1.40 = 98.00
98.00 x 1.40 = 137.20
137.20 x 1.40 = 192.36
192.36 x 1.40 = 269.30

This is obviously a very broad example, but the moral of the story is that Accumulation betting takes time, patience and balls!

I'll be writing opinion peices and giving a track record of recent bets and an up to date run down of where my personal Accumulation Fund is up to. I'll be starting a new one from ground zero for this blog with either $20 or $50, I'm not sure yet.

Either way, this is an exciteing time for me and I hope you all follow me on this and maybe even get a couple of good tips.